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This is Phase 2 of the study.

Phase 2 consists of four questions, two on this page and two on the next one.


{% if OwnFirst == 1 and OwnOrder == 1 %}

Consider the task you completed in Phase 1.


Question 1

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was between 52 and 58. In what percentage of these trials do you think you gave a correct answer, that is, you correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100% where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of your true accuracy, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_own_close %}

Question 2

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was smaller than 52 or larger than 58. In what percentage of these trials do you think you gave a correct answer, that is, you correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100% where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of your true accuracy, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_own_far %}

{% elif OwnFirst == 1 and OwnOrder == 2%}

Consider the task you completed in Phase 1.


Question 1

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was smaller than 52 or larger than 58. In what percentage of these trials do you think you gave a correct answer, that is, you correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100% where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of your true accuracy, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_own_far %}

Question 2

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was between 52 and 58. In what percentage of these trials do you think you gave a correct answer, that is, you correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100% where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of your true accuracy, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_own_close %}

{% elif OwnFirst == 0 and OtherOrder == 1 %}

There are 99 other participants in this study.

Consider the task completed by the other participants in Phase 1.


Question 1

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was equal to 47. In what percentage of these trials do you think the other participants gave a correct answer, that is, they correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100%, where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of the true percentage, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_other_47 %}

Question 2

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was equal to 54. In what percentage of these trials do you think the other participants gave a correct answer, that is, they correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100%, where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of the true percentage, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_other_54 %}

{% elif OwnFirst == 0 and OtherOrder == 2 %}

There are 99 other participants in this study.

Consider the task completed by the other participants in Phase 1.


Question 1

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was equal to 54. In what percentage of these trials do you think the other participants gave a correct answer, that is, they correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100%, where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of the true percentage, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_other_54 %}

Question 2

Consider only trials where the number on the screen was equal to 47. In what percentage of these trials do you think the other participants gave a correct answer, that is, they correctly classified whether the number was smaller or larger than 55? Give us your forecast on a scale between 0% and 100%, where 0% means you believe no answer in these trials was correct and 100% means you believe all answers in these trials were correct. If your forecast is within plus or minus {{ Constants.forecast_tolerance }}% of the true percentage, you will earn £{{ Constants.forecast_prize }}. {% formfield player.forecast_other_47 %}

{% endif %}


Press ENTER to confirm your answers.

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